» Oil rigs are seen in Midland, Texas May 9, 2008. Oil jumped to a record above $126 a barrel on Friday, extending gains to more than 11 percent since the start of the month on fuel supply concerns and a rush of speculator buying.2008年5月份德克萨斯州的石油钻井平台。在周五的时候，原油价格飙升到了每桶126美元以上，这是自从本月初人们开始担心能源供给和一系列的投机购买行为后，才导致了原油价格上升，上升幅度超过了11个百分点。(Reuters) - The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's top oil producer by 2017, the West's energy agency said on Monday, predicting Washington will come very close to achieving a previously unthinkable energy self-sufficiency.(路透社)——西方的能源机构(国际能源署)在周一的时候说，到2017年时，美国将会取代沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯成为世界头号原油生产国，该机构还预测美国在能源上将能够自给自足，而这在过去是不可想象的。The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it saw a continued fall in U.S. oil imports with North America becoming a net oil exporter by around 2030 and the United States becoming almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035.国际能源署说，美国现在的原油进口量在不断的降低，到2030年左右，北美将会成为原油净出口地区，而到2035年时，美国在能源上将几乎能达到自给自足。"The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said.国际能源署说：“美国现在的能源进口量大约占其总需求量的20%，如果按净值来计算的话，几乎达到了自给自足的状态——而大多数国家似乎越来越依赖于能源进口，所以美国的能源进出口趋势和其他大多数国家是相反的。The forecasts by the IEA, which advises large industrialized nations on energy policy, were in sharp contrast to its previous reports, which saw Saudi Arabia remaining the top producer until 2035.国际能源署这次做的有关发达国家能源政策上的预测和该机构之前的做的预测产生了强烈的对比，因为该机构之前说沙特阿拉伯直到2035年还会是世界头号石油生产国。"Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America - and the energy sector," the IEA said in the annual long-term report, giving one of the most optimistic forecasts for U.S. energy production growth to date.“美国能源发展的成就是巨大的，对北美以及北美以外的地方都会产生影响——而且还会对除能源部门外的其他部门产生影响。”国际能源署在其每年发布的远期报告中这样说道，在这份报告中，国际能源署对美国的能源生产增长率给予了极其乐观的预测，而这在之前是从没发生过的。"The recent rebound in U.S. oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity - with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge," it added.报告中还说道：“最近美国石油和天然气的产量都得到了大幅的提高，主要原因是应用了最新的开采技术，所以那些处于地底深层的原油以及在页岩以下的天然气都得到了很好的开采，所以美国的经济得到了大量的能源供给——天然气和电价的价格变得更便宜了，这使得美国的企业的成本更低，从而更具竞争力。IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told a news conference in London he believed the United States would overtake Russia as the biggest gas producer by a significant margin by 2015. By 2017, it would become the world's largest oil producer, he said.国际能源署的首席经济学家毕洛在伦敦的一个新闻发布会上说，他相信到2015年时，美国能够以绝对的优势取代俄罗斯成为世界上最大的天然气生产国。他又说，到2017年时，美国将会成为最大的原油生产国。This could have significant geopolitical implications, if Washington feels its strategic interests are no longer as embedded in the Middle East and other volatile oil producing regions.而这也会对地缘政治产生一些影响，比如美国可能会觉得其战略利益不再存在于中东地区或者是其它动荡的石油生产区域了。Analysts ask whether an energy independent United States would still be prepared to safeguard major trade routes around the world, such as the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.有分析学者可能会问：一个能源上独立的美国是否还会去保卫世界上主要的贸易路线，比如中东的霍尔木兹海峡。The United States will rely more on natural gas than either oil or coal by 2035 as cheap domestic supply boosts demand among industry and power generators, the IEA said.到2035年时，美国将会更多的依赖天然气，对石油或者是煤炭的依赖没有天然气那么高，原因是美国国内就可以大量的供应便宜的天然气资源，这刺激了工业部门和发电厂对天然气的需求，国际能源署如此说道。LIMITED KNOWLEDGE有限的认识Birol said he realized how optimistic the IEA forecasts were given that the shale oil boom was a relatively new phenomenon.毕洛说，目前页岩油相对来说还是新事物，之前并没有大量的开采过，所以国际能源署才会对美国的能源未来那么的积极乐观。"Light, tight oil resources are poorly known ... If no new resources are discovered (after 2020) and plus, if the prices are not as high as today, then we may see Saudi Arabia coming back and being the first producer again," he said.“那些埋在地底深层的石油资源目前还不被人所熟知。。。如果在2020年以后还没有新的深层石油资源被发现，加上如果那时的原油价格没有今天这么高的话，那么沙特阿拉伯可能卷土重来并且再次夺得头号原油生产国的宝座。”他如此说道。The IEA said it saw U.S. oil production rising to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015 and 11.1 million bpd in 2020 before slipping to 9.2 million bpd by 2035.国际能源署说，美国的原油产量到2015年时会达到每天1000万桶，而到2020年时每天可以达到1110万桶，而到2035年时会下降到920万桶。Saudi Arabian oil output would be 10.9 million bpd by 2015, the IEA said, 10.6 million bpd in 2020 but would rise to 12.3 million bpd by 2035.而沙特阿拉伯的石油产量在这三个时期则分别是1090万桶，1060万桶以及1230万桶。That would see the world relying increasingly on OPEC after 2020 as, in addition to increases from Saudi Arabia, Iraq will account for 45 percent of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and become the second-largest exporter, overtaking Russia.所以最终的结果是，在2020年以后，整个世界还会继续依赖欧佩克的石油，原因是不仅沙特阿拉伯会有更多的石油产出，更重要的原因是，到2035年时，伊拉克将会占据全球石油生产增长份额的45%并且代替俄罗斯成为第二大石油出口国。OPEC's share of world oil production will rise to 48 percent from 42 percent now.到那时，欧佩克在全球石油产量上的份额将会从现在的42%增长到48%。Russian oil output, which over the past decade has been steadily above Saudi Arabia, is predicted to stay flat at over 10 million bpd until 2020, when it will start to decline to reach just above 9 million bpd by 2035.俄罗斯的石油产量在过去的十年来正在稳步的超越沙特阿拉伯，但是，到2020年时，其石油产量将只能达到每天1000万桶的规模，然后就会开始走下坡路，到2035年时，将只能达到每天900多万桶的规模。"Russia, which remains the largest individual energy exporter throughout the period, sees its revenues from oil, natural gas and coal exports rise from $380 billion in 2011 to $410 billion in 2035," the IEA said.国际能源署说：“在这个期间，俄罗斯将还会是世界上最大的个体能源出口国，其从石油、天然气和煤炭中获得的收入将从2011年的3800亿美元上升到2035年的4100亿美元。”The U.S. oil boom would accelerate a switch in the direction of international oil trade, the IEA said, predicting that by 2035 almost 90 percent of oil from the Middle East would be drawn to Asia.美国在石油上的产量大增，这将会加快国际石油贸易方向上的转变，国际能源署如此说道，该机构预测，到2035年时，中东国家90%的石油将会被出口到亚洲。ENERGY DEMAND GROWS BY THIRD能源需求增长三分之一The report assumes a huge expansion in the Chinese economy, which it saw overtaking the United States in purchasing power parity soon after 2015 and by 2020 using market exchange rates. Chinese real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 5.7 percent annually between 2011 and 2035.国际能源署的这份报告假设了中国经济将会继续得到巨大的发展，认为通过利用市场汇率的手段，在购买力均价上中国将会在2015年到2020年期间超过美国。而中国的实际国内生产总值在2011年至2034年之间每年将会以5.7%的速度增长。A rise of 1.8 billion in the world's population to 8.6 billion would lead to a spike in global oil demand by more than a 10th to over 99 million bpd by 2035, keeping pressure on oil prices, the IEA said.国际能源署说, 到2035年时，世界人口将新增加18亿达到创纪录的86亿，这将会使对石油的需求达到顶峰，所以到2035时，全球每天要生产9900万桶的原油才能满足需求，这会给石油价格带来巨大的压力。The agency's central "New Policies" scenario, which assumes a range of measures are taken to curb oil consumption in Europe, the United States, China and elsewhere, sees the average import cost of oil rise to just over $215 per barrel by 2035 in nominal terms, or $125 in 2011 terms.国际能源署的“新政策”方案假设世界通过一系列的措施来遏制欧洲，美国，中国以及世界其他地方的石油消费，但是即使是在这种情况下，到2035年时，平均的石油进口价格将会达到每桶215美元或更多，这是以名义(票面)价值来计算的，如果以2011年的基础来计算的话，将会达到125美元每桶。If fewer steps are taken to promote renewable energy and curb carbon dioxide emissions, oil was likely to exceed $250 per barrel in nominal terms by 2035 and reach $145 in real terms -- almost level with the record highs seen four years ago.如果不采取措施来发展可再生能源和抑制二氧化碳的排放的话，到2035年时，石油价格(按名义价值算)将会超过250美元每桶，或者达到145美元每桶(扣除物价因素)——而这和四年前出现的高油价一样的高。The share of coal in primary energy demand will fall only slightly by 2035.到2035年的时候，人们对煤炭的需求只会下降一点点。Fossil fuels in general will remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, jumped by almost 30 percent to $523 billion, due mainly to increases in the Middle East and North Africa.一般来说，化石燃料将会在全球能源组合中占据主导地位，但是由于得到了政府的补贴，在2011年的时候，化石燃料的产值下降了30%达到5230亿美元，而这个产值中的大部分主要受益于中东和北非的产量提高。因该已经开发出来新能源了，不然以美国的观念不大可能挖自己的东西 因该已经开发出来新能源了，不然以美国的观念不大可能挖自己的东西我昨天转过了。。。不过没英文。。。。新能源技术有把握20年内取得突破性进展了，不再憋着能源造成紧张局势，加快消耗能力加重其他国家跟进消耗能力进一步用新能源技术垄断世界减少对欧佩克依赖和绿教阵营扯皮，继续拖着全球能源问题严重化和减少军事战争保存实力憋新科技完了又一次领先全球20年。美军不仅是在石油输出国存在，全世界都要遍布，日韩不就是