» Oil rigs are seen in Midland, Texas May 9, 2008. Oil jumped to a record above $126 a barrel on Friday, extending gains to more than 11 percent since the start of the month on fuel supply concerns and a rush of speculator buying.2008年5月份德克萨斯州的石油钻井平台。在周五的时候，原油价格飙升到了每桶126美元以上，这是自从本月初人们开始担心能源供给和一系列的投机购买行为后，才导致了原油价格上升，上升幅度超过了11个百分点。(Reuters) - The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's top oil producer by 2017, the West's energy agency said on Monday, predicting Washington will come very close to achieving a previously unthinkable energy self-sufficiency.(路透社)——西方的能源机构(国际能源署)在周一的时候说，到2017年时，美国将会取代沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯成为世界头号原油生产国，该机构还预测美国在能源上将能够自给自足，而这在过去是不可想象的。The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it saw a continued fall in U.S. oil imports with North America becoming a net oil exporter by around 2030 and the United States becoming almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035.国际能源署说，美国现在的原油进口量在不断的降低，到2030年左右，北美将会成为原油净出口地区，而到2035年时，美国在能源上将几乎能达到自给自足。"The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said.国际能源署说：“美国现在的能源进口量大约占其总需求量的20%，如果按净值来计算的话，几乎达到了自给自足的状态——而大多数国家似乎越来越依赖于能源进口，所以美国的能源进出口趋势和其他大多数国家是相反的。The forecasts by the IEA, which advises large industrialized nations on energy policy, were in sharp contrast to its previous reports, which saw Saudi Arabia remaining the top producer until 2035.国际能源署这次做的有关发达国家能源政策上的预测和该机构之前的做的预测产生了强烈的对比，因为该机构之前说沙特阿拉伯直到2035年还会是世界头号石油生产国。"Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America - and the energy sector," the IEA said in the annual long-term report, giving one of the most optimistic forecasts for U.S. energy production growth to date.“美国能源发展的成就是巨大的，对北美以及北美以外的地方都会产生影响——而且还会对除能源部门外的其他部门产生影响。”国际能源署在其每年发布的远期报告中这样说道，在这份报告中，国际能源署对美国的能源生产增长率给予了极其乐观的预测，而这在之前是从没发生过的。"The recent rebound in U.S. oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity - with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge," it added.报告中还说道：“最近美国石油和天然气的产量都得到了大幅的提高，主要原因是应用了最新的开采技术，所以那些处于地底深层的原油以及在页岩以下的天然气都得到了很好的开采，所以美国的经济得到了大量的能源供给——天然气和电价的价格变得更便宜了，这使得美国的企业的成本更低，从而更具竞争力。IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told a news conference in London he believed the United States would overtake Russia as the biggest gas producer by a significant margin by 2015. By 2017, it would become the world's largest oil producer, he said.国际能源署的首席经济学家毕洛在伦敦的一个新闻发布会上说，他相信到2015年时，美国能够以绝对的优势取代俄罗斯成为世界上最大的天然气生产国。他又说，到2017年时，美国将会成为最大的原油生产国。This could have significant geopolitical implications, if Washington feels its strategic interests are no longer as embedded in the Middle East and other volatile oil producing regions.而这也会对地缘政治产生一些影响，比如美国可能会觉得其战略利益不再存在于中东地区或者是其它动荡的石油生产区域了。Analysts ask whether an energy independent United States would still be prepared to safeguard major trade routes around the world, such as the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.有分析学者可能会问：一个能源上独立的美国是否还会去保卫世界上主要的贸易路线，比如中东的霍尔木兹海峡。The United States will rely more on natural gas than either oil or coal by 2035 as cheap domestic supply boosts demand among industry and power generators, the IEA said.到2035年时，美国将会更多的依赖天然气，对石油或者是煤炭的依赖没有天然气那么高，原因是美国国内就可以大量的供应便宜的天然气资源，这刺激了工业部门和发电厂对天然气的需求，国际能源署如此说道。LIMITED KNOWLEDGE有限的认识Birol said he realized how optimistic the IEA forecasts were given that the shale oil boom was a relatively new phenomenon.毕洛说，目前页岩油相对来说还是新事物，之前并没有大量的开采过，所以国际能源署才会对美国的能源未来那么的积极乐观。"Light, tight oil resources are poorly known ... If no new resources are discovered (after 2020) and plus, if the prices are not as high as today, then we may see Saudi Arabia coming back and being the first producer again," he said.“那些埋在地底深层的石油资源目前还不被人所熟知。。。如果在2020年以后还没有新的深层石油资源被发现，加上如果那时的原油价格没有今天这么高的话，那么沙特阿拉伯可能卷土重来并且再次夺得头号原油生产国的宝座。”他如此说道。The IEA said it saw U.S. oil production rising to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015 and 11.1 million bpd in 2020 before slipping to 9.2 million bpd by 2035.国际能源署说，美国的原油产量到2015年时会达到每天1000万桶，而到2020年时每天可以达到1110万桶，而到2035年时会下降到920万桶。Saudi Arabian oil output would be 10.9 million bpd by 2015, the IEA said, 10.6 million bpd in 2020 but would rise to 12.3 million bpd by 2035.而沙特阿拉伯的石油产量在这三个时期则分别是1090万桶，1060万桶以及1230万桶。That would see the world relying increasingly on OPEC after 2020 as, in addition to increases from Saudi Arabia, Iraq will account for 45 percent of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and become the second-largest exporter, overtaking Russia.所以最终的结果是，在2020年以后，整个世界还会继续依赖欧佩克的石油，原因是不仅沙特阿拉伯会有更多的石油产出，更重要的原因是，到2035年时，伊拉克将会占据全球石油生产增长份额的45%并且代替俄罗斯成为第二大石油出口国。OPEC's share of world oil production will rise to 48 percent from 42 percent now.到那时，欧佩克在全球石油产量上的份额将会从现在的42%增长到48%。Russian oil output, which over the past decade has been steadily above Saudi Arabia, is predicted to stay flat at over 10 million bpd until 2020, when it will start to decline to reach just above 9 million bpd by 2035.俄罗斯的石油产量在过去的十年来正在稳步的超越沙特阿拉伯，但是，到2020年时，其石油产量将只能达到每天1000万桶的规模，然后就会开始走下坡路，到2035年时，将只能达到每天900多万桶的规模。"Russia, which remains the largest individual energy exporter throughout the period, sees its revenues from oil, natural gas and coal exports rise from $380 billion in 2011 to $410 billion in 2035," the IEA said.国际能源署说：“在这个期间，俄罗斯将还会是世界上最大的个体能源出口国，其从石油、天然气和煤炭中获得的收入将从2011年的3800亿美元上升到2035年的4100亿美元。”The U.S. oil boom would accelerate a switch in the direction of international oil trade, the IEA said, predicting that by 2035 almost 90 percent of oil from the Middle East would be drawn to Asia.美国在石油上的产量大增，这将会加快国际石油贸易方向上的转变，国际能源署如此说道，该机构预测，到2035年时，中东国家90%的石油将会被出口到亚洲。ENERGY DEMAND GROWS BY THIRD能源需求增长三分之一The report assumes a huge expansion in the Chinese economy, which it saw overtaking the United States in purchasing power parity soon after 2015 and by 2020 using market exchange rates. Chinese real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 5.7 percent annually between 2011 and 2035.国际能源署的这份报告假设了中国经济将会继续得到巨大的发展，认为通过利用市场汇率的手段，在购买力均价上中国将会在2015年到2020年期间超过美国。而中国的实际国内生产总值在2011年至2034年之间每年将会以5.7%的速度增长。A rise of 1.8 billion in the world's population to 8.6 billion would lead to a spike in global oil demand by more than a 10th to over 99 million bpd by 2035, keeping pressure on oil prices, the IEA said.国际能源署说, 到2035年时，世界人口将新增加18亿达到创纪录的86亿，这将会使对石油的需求达到顶峰，所以到2035时，全球每天要生产9900万桶的原油才能满足需求，这会给石油价格带来巨大的压力。The agency's central "New Policies" scenario, which assumes a range of measures are taken to curb oil consumption in Europe, the United States, China and elsewhere, sees the average import cost of oil rise to just over $215 per barrel by 2035 in nominal terms, or $125 in 2011 terms.国际能源署的“新政策”方案假设世界通过一系列的措施来遏制欧洲，美国，中国以及世界其他地方的石油消费，但是即使是在这种情况下，到2035年时，平均的石油进口价格将会达到每桶215美元或更多，这是以名义(票面)价值来计算的，如果以2011年的基础来计算的话，将会达到125美元每桶。If fewer steps are taken to promote renewable energy and curb carbon dioxide emissions, oil was likely to exceed $250 per barrel in nominal terms by 2035 and reach $145 in real terms -- almost level with the record highs seen four years ago.如果不采取措施来发展可再生能源和抑制二氧化碳的排放的话，到2035年时，石油价格(按名义价值算)将会超过250美元每桶，或者达到145美元每桶(扣除物价因素)——而这和四年前出现的高油价一样的高。The share of coal in primary energy demand will fall only slightly by 2035.到2035年的时候，人们对煤炭的需求只会下降一点点。Fossil fuels in general will remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, jumped by almost 30 percent to $523 billion, due mainly to increases in the Middle East and North Africa.一般来说，化石燃料将会在全球能源组合中占据主导地位，但是由于得到了政府的补贴，在2011年的时候，化石燃料的产值下降了30%达到5230亿美元，而这个产值中的大部分主要受益于中东和北非的产量提高。 评论翻译:原创翻译：龙腾网 翻译：喜欢寂寞 转载请注明出处本贴论坛地址：网友观点：newmichaelman wrote:Obama did that.是奥巴马的功劳。Nov 12, 2012 9:10am EST -- Report as abuseanarcurt wrote:I thought Obama was a tree hugging hippie who was killing US energy independence?我之前觉得奥巴马是一个保护环境的嬉皮士，他正在破坏美国的能源独立性？Nov 12, 2012 9:36am EST -- Report as abusewilhelm wrote:not sure how that tracks to coastal flooding, extended droughts and massive crop failures, but what the heck, that’s for the other departments to figure out…真不知道这和东海岸的洪水灾害、不断扩大的干旱以及大量的农作物减产有什么关系，真见鬼，这些事情让其他的政府部门想办法解决吧。。。Nov 12, 2012 9:58am EST -- Report as abuseBCerentano wrote:Yet our $16 trillion debt will continue to grow as Big Oil reaps the benefits.可是我们的16万亿债务将继续扩大，而那些石油巨头却收益颇丰。Nov 12, 2012 10:04am EST -- Report as abuseamericanguy wrote:Who cares, if we all had oil gushing from our backyards, gasoline will continue to rise so Wall Street investors and Big Oil can get their record profits. It has nothing to do with supply and demand.Europe will save the world. They are working on a car made out of carbon fiber and the body of the car stores electricity like a battery. It means cheap electric cars, fast charging, with a long range. But of course people in the US will never see those cars, because the oil companies will not allow us to have them. Europe will be driving around in electric cars and people in the US will be paying $15.00 a gallon for gas in 2017. Notice how it is always the “socialist” countries that are now inventing the best solutions.谁会去关心这种事情啊，如果我们从自己国家就可以获得石油资源，那么石油价格还是会涨的，因为只有这样那些华尔街的投资者和石油巨头才能获得利益。价格和供给关系一点关系也没有。欧洲将会拯救世界。他们正在研制碳纤维的汽车，而且这种汽车的车身还能像电池一样存储电量。这也就意味更便宜的价格，快速充电，而且还能长途行驶。但是，美国人永远也看不到这种车的，因为那些石油公司是不会允许我们拥有这种车的。到2017年时，那些欧洲人就会开着这种车到处闲逛，而我们美国人将不得不支付15美元每加仑的汽油钱。看看吧，现在都是一些社会主义国家在投资这种最好的解决方案。Nov 12, 2012 10:21am EST -- Report as abuseNullcorp wrote:It won’t last… procuring “light tight” sources and the switch to natural gas are acts of desperation by traditional energy companies… and they leave huge scars on our landscape as well. Alternatives are there but political and corporate will is not. They will wait until it’s too late, as always.这种情况不会长久的，索取底层的石油资源并且开始大量利用天然气资源只是一些传统能源公司的垂死挣扎罢了。。并且还在我们的风景如画的土地上留下伤疤。替代资源的确是存在的，可是我们的政客和能源公司们并不想这么做。他们会一直等，直到灾难到来，这就是这些人一直以来的作风。Nov 12, 2012 10:53am EST -- Report as abuseRudyHaugeneder wrote:This guarantees Climate Change will accelerate faster than predicted, meaning we will soon become the stuff of fossils.如果真是这样的话，那么气候变暖会比我们想象的来得更快，也就意味着我们大家很快将会变成化石了。Nov 12, 2012 10:55am EST -- Report as abuseJohnnyUtah wrote:This isn’t caused by anything Obama did.这些和奥巴马做的事情一点关系也没有。Nov 12, 2012 10:59am EST -- Report as abuseSue4 wrote:Of course environmental impact is missing from the equation. Not “just” global warming. Ask the citizens of PA about the “new technology”. IEA is assuming that the rich white men who lost the election are going to be in power for the next 23 years, and that the oil companies will then be able to do whatever they want right there in your back yard.. literally. So this is a heads up! Not some unbelievably good news. Let’s no be naive. Maybe the oil companies have the IEA in their pocket. No amount of cynicism is unwarranted when it comes to big oil money.根本就没有考虑到对环境会产生的影响。不仅仅只是全球变暖那么简单而已。问问爸爸级的市民们有关“新技术”的问题。国际能源署在假设刚刚失败的总统获选人将会在接下来的23年里掌权，然后那些石油公司就可以在美国自家门口做任何他们想做的事情。。所以这是一个警告！并不是什么难以置信的新闻。不要再天真了。也许这些石油公司已经把国际能源署收买了吧。石油巨头都不是好东西。Nov 12, 2012 12:08pm EST -- Report as abuseRenox wrote:I always though that peak oil was just a scam, so that oil companies extract the maximum price for their black gold. Now the US can suddenly find 10 mil barrels out of nowhere!The article ignores the very likely scenario that by 2035 we will have devoured all natural resources around us, making the entire planet inhabitable, at which point an egg or an apple might be more valuable than a barrel of oil!我总是觉得说石油生产达到了一个顶峰是一个骗局，因为只有这样子那些石油公司才能最大化的从中得利。现在又突然说在美国可以找到1000万桶的原油！这篇文章忽视了一中可能性，那就是在2035年时，我们可能已经使用光了所有的自然资源，导致地球成了一个不适合人类居住的地方，而到那时，可能一个鸡蛋或者一个苹果都比一桶石油来得珍贵！Nov 12, 2012 12:12pm EST -- Report as abuseBioStudies wrote:I would like to see some PROOF that we are overtaking everyone in oil production Reuters. The day after Obama got re-elected he closed down practically all government land to future drilling. Where is this oil coming from?路透社，你能给我展示一下美国即将在原油生产上超越世界上任何国家的证据吗。在奥巴马再次当选后，他就已经采取行动关闭了所有政府土地以杜绝能源开采行为。所以那些的石油将从哪里来？Nov 12, 2012 12:24pm EST -- Report as abuseOnLYinAMERICA89 wrote:I thought we were running out of Oil and why in the hack are we exporting Oil and GAS? Duh to make a profit for the Oil companies!我之前觉得我们自己都没有石油用了，但是为什么还要出口石油和天然气？是为了给那些石油公司创造利润！Nov 12, 2012 1:10pm EST -- Report as abuseUauS wrote:GO SOLAR!!!利用太阳能吧！！！Nov 12, 2012 1:32pm EST -- Report as abusexyz2055 wrote:BioStudies…Obama did no such thing. He pulled the leases of public land from some oil companies that have been sitting on since Bush was president. Those leases can now be sold to someone who will drill. STOP contributing to the almost non-stop flow of misinformation here.BioStudies。。奥巴马根本就没这么做过。他把一些租给石油公司的土地收了回来，而这些土地在布什当政时就被这些石油公司租去了。这些土地现在可以卖给任何想进行能源开采活动的人。所以你就不要在这里散播一些不真实的信息了吧，因为这里的不真实信息已经够多了。Nov 12, 2012 3:14pm EST -- Report as abuseUSAPragmatist wrote:@xyz2055, Normally I agree with you, but I have to take exception with your inference that Climate Change is not influenced by humans. Yes there have been climate shifts in our past, but from the current evidence, none (beyond Extinction level events like impacts or volcanic eruptions) have ‘kicked in’ as fast as the current rate of change. That is what makes human induced climate change even scarier, it may occur so fast that humans and, more likely, other species can not adapt to the change fast enough.@xyz2055，一般来说我同意你的看法，但是你说全球气候变化不是人类的错误，这一点我不同意。是的，在过去的历史中，我们的气候的确是发生过变化，但是从目前的情况看，之前的那些气候变化(不包括那些灭绝级别的大气对冲或者火山爆发)根本就没有目前的气候变化这么迅速，这就是为什么人类引发的气候变化比之前的自然形成的气候变化更可怕的原因了，目前的这种气候变化速度太快了，我们这些人类或者动物将无法跟上其脚步。Nov 12, 2012 4:19pm EST -- Report as abuseJaneallen wrote:This article fails to disclose how the estimate was made.In particularly, what percentage of our energy consumption will be green by then, and what percentage will be based oil consumption? With what certainty have these underlying assumptions about these percentages been made?这篇文章没有详细说明国际能源署是如何做出这些预测的。特别是，没有说明到2035年时，我们消费多少的能源才算得上是环保的，还有要消费多少的石油资源才算是环保的？还有，有多少的把握可以证明这些假设是成立的？Nov 12, 2012 4:53pm EST -- Report as abusealessiana wrote:What do your insecurities regarding climate change matter when we are on course for an increase of 11 degrees Fahrenheit if we keep to our current consumption rates? The people most worried about this are paleogeologists. Think about this for a moment. It won’t matter if we had high concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere 400 million years ago caused by volcanism. It’s irrelevant. There was still a massive die off of all life. Your investments sure as hell won’t matter in a hot rain of 110 degrees.Wake up. It’s going to happen if we don’t do something now.如果我们再继续以这样的速度使用资源的话，那么我们的大气温度将会增加11度(华氏温度)，你会觉得没有安全感吗？大多数关心这个议题的人都是一些上了年纪的地质学家。好好想想这个问题吧。如果是在400年前因为火山爆发而使大气中充满了大量二氧化碳的话，那我们可以不用担心，因为那和我们一点关系没有。现在有很多的动物在灭绝。如果世界上下起了110度(华氏温度)的雨水的话，那么你所有的投资也肯定是白费的。所以醒醒吧，如果我们现在不采取行动，这种事情将会发生。Nov 12, 2012 5:26pm EST -- Report as abusesusananai wrote:….and the republicans accused P. Obama of drying up the oil ha!共和党人谴责奥巴马使石油枯竭——哈！Nov 12, 2012 5:39pm EST -- Report as abuseSnowpine wrote:Global warming is a symptom of the larger issue overpopulation. It is too late to prevent this problem, and it isn’t even a mainstream subject yet.In less than a 100 years, it will be far.. far too late to do anything about bloated humanity.全球变暖是人口过多造成的，现在已经没办法控制人口的增长速度了，甚至人口控制目前都不是一个主流议题。在100年后，我们要想纠正我们贪婪的人性也来不及了。Nov 12, 2012 5:48pm EST -- Report as abusexyz2055 wrote:Snowpine..I drove from Phoenix to Tulsa a couple of months ago…the majority of the trip is through wide open land for miles.在几个月之前，我驱车从凤凰城到塔尔萨(美国俄克拉菏马州东北部城市)。。在路上，我看到的大多数地方都是非常开阔空旷的。Nov 12, 2012 6:07pm EST -- Report as abusegregbrew56 wrote:Phew! So now the U.S. has some breathing room to develop alternatives for when domestic supplies run out. I’m sure government leaders will get right on that, and take advantage of this “gift”.BWAHahahahaaaahhh! *tears from laughter streaming down face*哇！这么说当国内的能源用完以后，美国还有一些喘息的空间来发展其替代能源了。我敢肯定美国领导人肯定会正确的对待并且好好的利用这个“礼物”开心的不得了，都内牛满面了。很惊奇么？墨西哥湾阿拉斯加都是限采的，不然更高。不过再高也经不起烧啊美国人也感到了物价上涨了么。。