研究表明：中国，而不是华尔街，导致了08年的经济危机
China - Not Wall Street - Caused 2008 Crisis: Study
作者:翻译加工厂 发布日期:2012-08-30 浏览:11642
译文简介:你觉得2008年的全球经济危机是由次级贷款、债务抵押债券(CDOs)和其他华尔街的项目引起的么？你得再想想看了。
译文来源:
原创翻译：龙腾网 翻译：翻译加工厂 转载请注明出处
正文翻译:每人一小段，翻译我也行！
翻译加工厂，等你来认领！
-------------译者：freakmint-------------
Thought the global financial crisis in 2008 was caused by subprime bonds, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other Wall Street engineering? Think again.
你觉得2008年的全球经济危机是由次级贷款、债务抵押债券(CDOs)和其他华尔街的项目引起的么？你得再想想看了。
According to a new study, China, not Wall Street bankers, was responsible for the global crisis and the ensuing recession.
根据一项新的研究，中国，而不是华尔街的银行家们，应该为这次全球经济危机以及之后的经济衰退负责。
The study from the Erasmus Research Institute of Management says the saving frenzy of the Chinese created the cheap money, which fueled the U.S. housing bubble and its collapse.
伊莱姆斯管理研究所的研究表明，中国对储蓄的狂热产生了廉价货币，而这直接导致了美国房地产泡沫的出现和行业的崩盘。
Heleen Mees, writer of the study and assistant economics professor at Tilburg University in the Netherlands, says that exotic mortgage products could hardly have been the cause of the U.S. housing market bubble and the its ultimate collapse.
荷兰蒂尔堡大学的经济学助理教授Heleen Mees声称，外来的抵押产品很难导致美国房地产市场的泡沫，更不会致使市场崩盘。
According to the study, mortgages with those special features -- like mortgage-backed securities and CDOs -- accounted for less than five percent of the total number of new mortgages from 2000 to 2006.
根据这份研究，那些性质特殊的抵押贷款——比如按揭证券和债务抵押证券——在2000年到2006年贷款抵押业务的比重中仅占不到5%。
Mees, author of three books and contributor for Foreign Policy magazine, says it was the "loose" monetary policy of the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the decade which sparked a refinancing boom in the U.S. in 2003 and 2004 and a growth in personal spending.
Mees，三本著作的作者和外交政策杂志的撰稿人，说是美联储在最近十年初的宽松政策导致了03和04年兴起并持续近十年的重新募集资金热潮，并引发了个人消费水平的上涨。
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This U.S. spending binge fueled economic growth in China and in turn boosted total savings in that country.
美国的消费热潮助长了中国的经济增长，反过又推动了该国的总储蓄水平。
The study, which compared financial market responses to U.S., Chinese and German quarterly GDP from 2006 through 2009, shows that the Chinese have been saving more than half of their GDP during that time. Those savings were heavily skewed towards fixed income assets like government bonds and depressed interest rates worldwide from 2004 on.
该研究把2006至2009年间美国，中国，德国每季度的GDP与金融市场的反应作了对比。研究表明，在此期间，中国的储蓄水平一直高于他们GDP的一半。这些储蓄又向政府债券这类的固定收益资产严重倾斜，从而压低了2004年以来世界范围内的利率水平。
This allowed for interest rates around the world to fall, and sparked a boom in the U.S. housing market due to the availability of cheap money.
由于可以获得廉价资金，这就为全世界利率下降留出了余地，并引发了美国房地产市场的繁荣。
The study also argues that Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, set the world up for the Great Recession by providing the "intellectual backing for the aggressive rate cuts in the early 2000s."
该项研究也认为，美联储主席伯南克提供了支持在本世纪初的头十年积极削减利率的智囊意见，从而一手导演了大萧条。
With so many books out on the financial crisis, Mees recommends people read Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor by Arthur Lewis and she says people should avoid one of the blockbusters on the crisis, The Big Short by Michael Lewis
随着许多关于金融危机的书籍的问世，Mees推荐人们阅读 Arthur Lewis写的《Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor》(译注：中文译名《劳动力无限供给下的经济发展》)一书，她书中说，人们应该避免其中一个金融危机大片的上演。还有Michael Lewis的《The Big Short》(译注：中文译名《大空头》)。
评论翻译:评论按照赞同数顺序：
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Kenton • 11 hours ago
So, the US Federal Reserve's "loose money policy" sparking a spending boom based on low cost financing didn't cause the economic collapse...it was the Chinese for diligently saving from their meagre earnings.
Yeah! Right.
那么也就是说，美联储的“货币宽松政策”虽然导致了基于低成本信贷的消费急剧扩张，却不是引起经济崩溃的罪魁祸首。。。该责怪的是那些从微薄收入中辛苦积攒的中国人。
好吧！你说得对。
yahooreader 6 hours ago
E, interest rates are low mainly because the Fed has been and still is printing money like never before in US history. Maybe like the Romans did in their final decades.
厄，利率过低是因为美联储直到现在还在大量印钞，这种行为在美国历史上前所未有，就像罗马人在他们最后几十年里所做的一样。
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The Dude • 16 hours ago
"The saving frenzy of the Chinese created the cheap money, which fueled the U.S. housing bubble and its collapse". Yeah, and farmers cause the US obesity epidemic because they produce food.
“中国对储蓄的狂热产生了廉价货币，而这直接导致了美国房地产泡沫的出现和行业的崩盘。”说的太好了，是农民导致了美国人的肥胖症，谁叫他们把食物生产出来的。
yahooreader 6 hours ago
TD, best quote of the day: "farmers cause the US obesity epidemic because they produce food".
一针见血，近日最佳回复：“是农民导致了美国人的肥胖症，谁叫他们把食物生产出来的。”
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treesmiths3 • 12 hours ago
I thought we needed to blame Bush, or Cheney, or the wars. Now its the evil savers in China, how thoughtless of them. Blame anyone but ourselves!
我觉得我们应该指责布什、切尼或者战争。把矛头指向邪恶的中国储蓄者，那帮人还真是够无脑的。除了我们自己，谁也别怪！
Alan Greenspan 6 hours ago
Forget these media crooks and liars. Go to AVA Investment Analytics for real insight from the man with the leading record on the collapse who has backed this claim with a $100,000 reward if you can prove otherwise.
忘了这帮媒体骗子吧。去AVA投资分析公司看看真正的分析吧，是由一个在危机中业绩最好的家伙写的，他悬赏十万美刀给能够证明他错了的人。
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Chuck • 11 hours ago
Who wrote this cover piece for the banks and rating agencies? And your blaming the Chinese... Please.... whoever came up with this drivel needs to try again... What a trojan horse article.
这是谁给那帮银行和评级机构写的枪手文？指责中国人。。。帮帮忙。。。写这篇弱智文章的家伙要再努力努力。。。这文章纯属帮倒忙。
Alan Greenspan 9 hours ago
To learn the truth about the CNBC crooks, go to AVA Investment Analytics and read "Watch TV Make Money Who is Really Making Money?" 11 part series on AVA site about CNBC and the rest of the media crooks who rip off their audience every day!
要了解CNBC那帮骗子的真相，去AVA看看这个系列报道，“谁在真正赚钱系列之看电视赚钱？”一共AA集，在AVA网站上，讲CNBC和其他媒体骗子每天是怎么狠宰观众的。
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Brian • 13 hours ago
I nominate this article for "dumbest article of the year."
我提名这篇文章为“年度最弱智文章”
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My name • 10 hours ago
This is kind of story Wall Street people like to hear. They can do anything to empty your saving and retirement now, since it is China's fault for them to create those empty trust.
这种故事华尔街那帮人爱听。他们无所不用的掏空我们的积蓄然后退休，反正有中国给他们(编出来的的假信托)背黑锅。
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Tina • 13 hours ago Who
created all those trillions our of thin air for the Chinese to save? Alan Greenspan with his low rate policies to stimulate the economy ended up overseas with China. Duh.
凭空变出几万亿的钞票，难道就为了给中国人存起来？格林斯潘刺激经济的低息政策最终便宜了中国人？哈。
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Maximus • 14 hours ago
This story has been told before ... Its very shallow. Perhaps a better analysis would to look at the impact of 30 years of outsourcing manufacturing that created trade imbalances and study the long term affects of that policy by US companies.
这故事以前有人讲过。。。非常浅薄。要分析得更靠谱点可以去看下30年来制造业外流导致的贸易失衡所带来的影响，也可以去研究下这些把制造部门搬到海外的美国公司所带来的长期影响。
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Papabear • 10 hours ago
buyers of trashes are the causes of the contaminations of trashes? that's the same logic as the victim of rape is the reason for rape to happen. only wall street banksters and their pets can come up with that kind of logic
买下垃圾的人是造成垃圾污染的原因？同样的逻辑，被强奸的成了强奸发生的理由？只有华尔街那帮金融骗子和他们养的狗能想出这种逻辑。
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Vourn is Rad • 12 hours ago
Huh??? Greed was the cause of the collapse. Everyone who participated had a role. From those who really couldn't afford the subprime mortgages to the investors who bought and packaged it as hedged funds in the secondary market.
Everyone made off in one way or another til it all came crashing down.
哈？？？贪婪是崩溃的原因。所有参与者都有份，从那些真还不起次贷的家伙，到在二级市场里把次贷打包成封闭式基金的投资者。
每个人都以这种或那种方式溜走(译者注：指断供)，直到一切全完蛋。
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practicaltalk • 13 hours ago
when you cant swim, you put the blame on the manufacturer of the swimming costume and trunk. When you smoke heavily and was infected with terminal illness, you put the blame on the manufacturer of tobacco and the plantations..
如果你不会游泳，你去指责生产泳衣泳裤的厂家。如果你烟瘾很大最终恶疾到了晚期，你去指责烟草商和种植园。。。
Daren Ma 5 hours ago
so are they encourage us to save less, spend more and borrow more, so we can be more in debt ???!!!!???,
那么他们鼓励我们少存钱，多花钱，多借钱，让我们背上一屁股债，有木有？？？！！！？？？
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martin m • 7 hours ago
Saving is a good thing. It's what enables companies to borrow for capital expansion. The Chinese, and their money-saving ways, had nothing to do with the crazy lending practices and fraud perpetrated by the banks and Wall Street
存钱是好事。它使得公司能够借到钱来进行资本扩张。中国人，还有他们的储蓄之道，跟华尔街那帮人搞出来的疯狂借贷与欺诈没啥关系。
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Andi • 12 hours ago
So, the one thing I'm learning from this article is don't send your kids to Netherlands, Tillburg University or they are sure to be the dumbest college educated kids around blaming everybody else.. China created 2008 recession, the cow ate my homework, yada, yada, yada.. Can't believe she is an assistant professor.. I feel bad for the kids that are paying ridiculous tuition to learn from this professor.
好吧，我从这篇文章里学到一点，别把你的孩子送到荷兰去。Tillburg 大学绝对是最傻逼的大学，教孩子们怎么去指责其他人。。。是中国引发了08年的衰退，是母牛吃了我的作业等等等等...难以相信她居然还是副教授，真为那帮付钱去她那读书的孩子感到难过。
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Fredna • 8 hours ago
If you look, the fed started dropping interest rates through the floor in during 2001 in the Clinton years (6% - 1.25%). Comparatively, China increased it US debt holdings by a factor of nearly 10 (181 billion to 1.6 Trillion). You wonder...
如果你观察过，在01年克林顿时期，美联储开始降息，直降到谷底(从6%降到1.25%)。相比之下，中国持有的美国国债几乎翻了10倍(从1810亿到1.6万亿)。你想想看。。。
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sandnig • 15 hours ago
So first she blames it on China and then for fear of getting backlash she says "The study also argues that Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, set the world up for the Great Recession". Coward. Bernanke and Wall Street, they sleep together.
一开头她指责中国，然后又害怕反对声太大，补充道：“该研究同时认为，是美联储主席伯南克，使世界做好了应对大衰退的准备”。懦夫伯南克和华尔街是睡一张床的。
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el fongerino • 16 hours ago
The money may have been cheap, but who figured out how to steal it? Not the Chinese, Heleen. What you're saying is that honest, hardworking people who save money encourage thieves, because they have surplus money available to be stolen. By your logic, the honest, hardworking person is guilty, not the thief. GMAB!
钞票可能确实廉价了，但谁教你去偷了么？不是中国人，Heleen。你的观点是，诚实勤劳的人攒钱给了小偷动力，因为他们有多余的钱可偷。按你的逻辑，诚实、辛勤工作的人才是罪犯，小偷反倒不是。
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Steve • 7 hours ago
I am hearing Bart Simpson's saying, "I didn't do it." over and over in my head. Why?
为啥我脑子里在一遍遍回放Bart Simpson的那句名言：“我没干过”。看了这篇文章。
我深刻的理解到，我吃东西，是因为我要拉。。。。早上就有人转帖过了。。。
从另一个角度说
这是体制问题这文章才是真的思维广乐趣多啊
不加入WTO就没事为啥不明白问题其实是制造业外流，还有财富分配问题。当年的信贷繁荣只是短期的兴奋剂。
这个问题我们迟早也要面对的，就别太乐观了。要是不用自己交社保，当宅男玩游戏还能领救济金，依然活得很滋润，我宁愿零储蓄中枪太多了，老中枪也不是个事
要是不用自己交社保，当宅男玩游戏还能领救济金，依然活得很滋润，我宁愿零储蓄
welcome to sweden我才不告诉你我今天早上尿了一泡尿，会导致美国几年之后洪涝灾害么？我才不告诉你我今天早上尿了一泡尿，会导致美国几年之后洪涝灾害么？2B思维广乐趣多