» 日本的经济增长策略错的一塌糊涂
日本的经济增长策略错的一塌糊涂
Japan's growth strategy is all wrong
作者:翻译加工厂 发布日期:2013-01-31 浏览:1292
译文简介:
为了加快日本经济的增长,安倍采取的措施将可能会摧毁日本的国债以及私人借贷的低利率。
译文来源:
原文地址:http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2013/jan/18/japan-economic-growth-strategy-wrong
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正文翻译:
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Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe on a visit to Thailand this week. Photograph: Narong Sangnak/EPA

日本首相安倍晋三本周访问泰国。
Japan's new government, led by prime minister Shinzo Abe, could be about to shoot itself in the foot. Seeking to boost economic growth, the authorities may soon destroy their one great advantage: the low rate of interest on government debt and private borrowing. If that happens, Japanese conditions will most likely be worse at the end of Abe's term than they are today.
由首相安倍晋三带领的日本新政府的可能自废武功。 为了提振经济,当局采取的措施可能会摧毁这个国家存在的一个巨大优势:极低的政府和私人借贷成本。果真如此安倍任期结束之时日本经济状况很可能比今天更差。
The interest rate on Japan's 10-year government bonds is now less than 1% the lowest in the world, despite a very high level of government debt and annual budget deficits. Indeed, Japan's debt is roughly 230% of GDP, higher than that of Greece (175% of GDP) and nearly twice that of Italy (125%). The annual budget deficit is nearly 10% of GDP, higher than any of the eurozone countries. With nominal GDP stagnating, that deficit is causing the debt/GDP ratio to rise by 10% annually.
十年期日本国债的利率低于1%,全球最低,尽管日本维持着很高的债务水平和年度赤字。日本国债是GDP的230%,高于希腊的175%,两倍于意大利的125%。年度赤字是GDP的10%,高于任何一个欧盟国家。在名义GDP滞涨的条件下,赤字导致债务产出比每年上升10%。
Japan's government is able to pay such a low rate of interest because domestic prices have been falling for more than a decade, while the yen has been strengthening against other major currencies. Domestic deflation means that the real interest rate on Japanese bonds is higher than the nominal rate. The yen's rising value raises the yield on Japanese bonds relative to the yield on bonds denominated in other currencies.
日本政府之所以可以以如此低廉的成本借贷是因为国内物价水平持续十年的下降,以及一直以来日元相对其他货币的坚挺。国内通缩意味着日本国债的真实利率比名义收益率高。日元升值导致国债相对收益率高于以他国。
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In the struggle to boost growth, Shinzo Abe may destroy Japan's low rate of interest on government debt and private borrowing
为了加快日本经济的增长,安倍采取的措施将可能会摧毁日本的国债以及私人借贷的低利率。
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That may be about to come to an end. Abe has demanded that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) pursue a quantitative-easing strategy that will deliver an inflation rate of 2-3% and weaken the yen. He will soon appoint a new BoJ governor and two deputy governors, who will, one presumes, be committed to this goal.
而这一切如今可能走到头了,安倍已经要求日本央行执行一种量化宽松政策,以维持2-3%的通胀和弱势的日元。他将任命新的央行行长和另外两名副行长来达到这个目标。
The financial markets are taking Abe's strategy seriously. The yen's value against the US dollar has declined by more than 7% in the last month. With the euro rising relative to the dollar, the yen's fall relative to the euro has been even greater.
金融市场严肃看待安倍的策略,上个月日元相对于美元已经贬值超过7%。由于欧元相对美元的升值,日元对欧元贬值更多。
The yen's weakening will mean higher import costs, and therefore a higher rate of inflation. An aggressive BoJ policy of money creation could cause further weakening of the yen's exchange rate and a rise in domestic prices that is more rapid than what Abe wants.
弱势日元以为着更高的进口成本,引起更高的通胀。激进的央行政策可能日元进一步贬值——其带来的通胀速度可能远高于安倍的初衷。
With Japanese prices rising and the yen falling relative to other currencies, investors will be willing to hold Japanese government bonds (JGBs) only if their nominal yield is significantly higher than it has been in the past. A direct effect of the higher interest rate would be to increase the budget deficit and the rate of growth of government debt. With a debt/GDP ratio of 230%, a four-percentage-point rise in borrowing costs would cause the annual deficit to double, to 20% of GDP.
通胀上升汇率贬值,投资者只有在名义利率显著高于以往的条件下才会持有日本国债。利率更高导致的一个结果是财政赤字增加以及政府债务增速提高。债务占GDP230%的条件下,仅仅4个百分点的债务成本上升将导致年度赤字翻倍,达到GDP20%。
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The government might be tempted to rely on rapid inflation to try to reduce the real value of its debt. Fear of that strategy could cause investors to demand even higher real interest rates.
政府可能试图依靠迅速的通胀来减少自身债务的实际值。但是出于对这种策略的恐惧,投资者将要求更高的回报率。
The combination of exploding debt and rising interest rates is a recipe for economic disaster. The BoJ's widely respected governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, whose term expires in April, summarised the situation in his usual restrained way, saying that "long-term interest rates may spike and have a negative effect on the economy".
无法控制的债务和上涨的利率的组合是经济灾难的导火索。即将在四月卸任日本央行行长白川方明以一贯的谨慎口吻这样描述目前的状况,“长期利率将会上涨并且为经济带来负面影响。”
A spike in long-term rates would lower the price of JGBs, destroying household wealth and, in turn, reducing consumer spending. The higher interest rates would also apply to corporate bonds and bank loans, weakening business investment.
长期利率的上涨降低国债价格,减少家庭财富,进而减少家庭消费。高利率同样作用与公司债和银行贷款,进而降低企业投资。
Even without the prospect of faster inflation and a declining yen, fundamental conditions in Japan point to higher interest rates. The Japanese government has been able to sell its bonds to domestic buyers because of the high rate of domestic saving. The excess of saving over investment has given Japan a current-account surplus, allowing the country to finance all of the government borrowing domestically, with enough left over to invest in dollar-denominated bonds and other foreign securities. But that is coming to an end.
即使没有高速通胀和日元贬值,经济基本面也会向高利率方向发展。日本政府一直依靠高储蓄率向国内投资者发行国债。国内储蓄额超过投资额的情况还使日本保持了经常项目盈余,允许政府仅在国内市场就可借贷所需资金,甚至还有富余用来投资以美元来计价的债券和其他国家的债券。但如今这一切都将终结。
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The household saving rate has collapsed in recent years, falling to less than 2%. The combination of high corporate saving and low business investment has sustained the current-account surplus, allowing Japan to fund its budget deficit domestically. But the surplus has fallen sharply in the past five years, from roughly 6% of GDP in 2007 to only 1% now. With a falling rate of household saving and the prospect of new fiscal deficits, the current account will soon be negative, forcing Japan to sell its debt to foreign buyers.
近年来家庭储蓄率暴跌至2%,企业高储蓄率和低投资率维持着日本经常项目的盈余,这使得日本可以靠自己来填补财政赤字。但是盈余近五年来加速下降,从07年的6%降至今天的1%。在家庭储蓄率下降和财政赤字的前景下,经常账户很快变成负值,强迫日本向国外投资者发行债务。
Abe plans to supplement the easy-money strategy with an increase in government spending of some $120bn (£75bn), or 2% of GDP. It is not clear why Abe and his advisers believe that this will deliver sustained real GDP growth of 2% a year. Although the $120bn is presumably just for the current year (if the spending can be made to happen that quickly), he also spoke during his campaign about a 10-year rise in government spending of ¥200tn (£1.4tn), substantially more than the $120bn annual rate. The impact of all of this on the national debt and on Japan's interest rates could be staggering.
除了印钱之外,安倍还将增加1200亿美元的政府支出,就是GDP的2%,目前还不清楚安倍和他的幕僚为何认为这个数目的支出足以维持实际GDP一年2%的增长。这1200亿日元可能只是今年的支出,安倍还在竞选活动中提出一个十年200万亿日元的政府支出计划,远远高于1200亿每年。这些支出可能会把日本国债总额和利率推到难以置信的高度。
Abe is right about one thing: Japan needs to get out of its no-growth and deflationary trap. But the policies that he favours are not the way to do it.
安倍关于日本必须走出经济停滞、通货紧缩的观点是正确的,但是他的政策于事无补。
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2013
评论翻译:
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angryboy
The Japanese have been trying to "kick start" their economy for years but all they seem to be doing is proving that Kensyian "stimulus" efforts work just like any other artificial stimulant by providing a short lived boost that does nothing to provide any sustainable, positive changes and leaves the country ever deeper in debt.
The one positive note is that there are plenty of lessons on what not to do for the West to learn from.
日本人多年来一直努力“瞬间启动”他们的经济,但是所有他们似乎只是证明 ,就如同任何其他的通过提供短期内快速发展的人为刺激一样,Kensyian 刺激计划运行不会提供任何可持续的,积极的变化,同时让国家在债务困境中陷的更深。
一个积极的方面是西方国家可以从日本的这些行为中学到很多教训,比如什么事情是不应该做的。
BenedictAtLarge
Monetarist nonsense. Government borrowing does not drive interest rates, Risk does. ALWAYS. NO EXCEPTIONS. There is no crowding out.
货币主义毫无意义。政府借贷不会驱动利率,风险才会。总着这样。毫无例外。不会产生挤出效应(由于政府出售证券而将私人的信贷挤出市场)。
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sophistis
Disagree.
Their policy has a good chance of generating growth as it is likely to fuel domestic demand and increase their exports. With their current debt to GDP ratio their only other alternative would have been a sovereign default that would have harmed the pensioners and domestic investors that are the primary holders of Japanese debt.
Their previous efforts at 'kick-starting' were half hearted and non-coordinated.
Japan is facing a strategic challenge that did not seem pressing a couple of decades ago. The rise of China has made it imperative for Japan to provide a credible growth strategy. Admittedly this poses a gamble but the worse case scenario is a debt ratio that will outpace growth rates. They are already in this predicament. Their best case scenario is growing economic output.
At the end of the day the bulk of their debt is still within their own control and the claim that this will change in the future is based on the assumption that the Japanese State and banking institutions will act like the Bank of England on Black Wednesday. Not necessarily so.
我不同意。
他们的这种政策非常有可能使经济得到增长,因为这些措施有可能会提高内需并且增加出口。在他们目前的债务和GDP水平的比率下,他们的另外一个选择就是主权债务违约,而
这将会使领退休金者和国内投资者遭受损失,而这两类人是日本国债的主要持有者。
他们之前的经济刺激政策做的非常不好。
日本现在正面临着一个战略性的挑战,而在几十年前情况还不是现在这么的严重。中国的崛起迫使日本不得不制定一个可靠的发展战略。坦白来说,这对日本来说是一场赌局,但是最坏的情况是日本的负债比率会超过经济增长率。然而日本现在已经陷入这个困境了。所以最好的情况是经济产出不断的增长。
考虑了所有情况之后,日本的债务规模依然在自己的控制之内,但是如果日本的政府以及银行机构像英格兰银行在黑色星期三(英镑退出欧洲汇率机制,英镑自由浮动)那么做的话,那么债务规模有可能会失控。但是也不一定就会发生这种情况。
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angryboy
"Their policy has a good chance of generating growth as it is likely to fuel domestic demand and increase their exports."
IMO it will increase domestic demand for as long as they keep the stimulus going but once it ends demand (and growth) will fall back to a lower, more sustainable level. As MF comments "It is not clear why Abe and his advisers believe that this will deliver sustained real GDP growth of 2% a year." the key word being sustained. I would genuinely like to understand the reason why you think any such growth would be self-perpetuating rather than temporary as all the evidence from previous stimulus attempts points to a non-sustainable, temporary boost that could leave Japan in a far worse state than it is now.
“他们的政策有可能使经济获得增长,因为这些政策有可能提高内需并且促进出口”
在我看来,只要他们一直执行这种经济刺激政策,那其国内需要就会不断的上升,但是一旦这种刺激政策停止以后,内需(和增长)就会回到更低以及更具持续性的发展水平。正如有人说的那样“不知道为什么安倍和其幕僚们觉得这种政策可以使日本的实际GDP每年增长2%”。关键的词是“每年”。之前的经济刺激计划所得到的结果也没有使经济获得可持续的发展(都是暂时的),所以这次凭什么说会带来每年都增长的可持续发展呢,而这种暂时性的经济增长只会让日本陷入比目前更悲惨的境地罢了。
KlausDubois
This article completely undermines the left-wing 'solution' to the ongoing EU & UK financial woes.
A cash injection can help economies to limp on, but it's not sustainable. Diminishing returns for keeping your head in the sand.
这篇文章完全破坏了导致欧盟和英国持续性金融灾难的左翼“解决方案”。
资金的注入可以帮助经济蹒跚的前行,但是这不是一种可持续性的做法。不正视问题只会使自己的利益受损。
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DanCooper71
A certain kind of "economist" has been making this very argument for years if not decades now: Oh my god! If governments do x and y, then interest rates will go through the roof! Yes! Interest rates are going to skyrocket any minute now! Be afraid!
Yet, despite various governments, notably the U.S., having done these very things, interest rates have not risen, apparently for reasons that other commenters above (and real economists like Paul Krugman, who actually look at facts and can reconsider when they make mistakes) have discussed.
Time to drop the zombie theories - meaning ones that have been disproven by facts yet keep getting trotted out.
如果不是几十年,至少几年来,某些“经济学家”一直在发表这种评论:噢,我的老天!如果政府做这个和那个,利率就马上要高得冲破屋顶!对!利率不久后马上就要像火箭穿破苍穹!开始害怕吧!
然而,尽管一些政府,特别值得注意的美国,已经做了这些事情,很明显的那些上面评论中提到的理由(像Paul Krugman那样真正的经济学家,能够正视实事,在犯错时重新认识),而利率并没有升高。
是时候抛出僵尸理论了——指的是那些已经被证伪但却还不断被提出来的理论观点。
angryboy
The simple reason why interest rates have not risen in the US, and several other countries, is because these governments have opted to print money rather than borrow it.
This unconventional practice degrades the currencies concerned which is why we are seeing rising consumer prices rather than rising interest rates. Basically they have decided to spread the pain, particularly to savers and pensioners, rather than leave it all to those people who overborrowed.
在美国和其他国家,利率没有上升的简单理由,是因为这些政府选择了印钱,而不是借钱。
这非常规的实践,降低了相关货币的价值,这就为什么我们看到居民消费品价格上涨,而不是利率上升。基本上,他们已经决定传播痛苦,特别是传播给那些储蓄者和养老金领取者,而不是把它(痛苦)留给借贷过多的人。
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SOUTHERNBIAS
@angryboy - Sorry I'm confused, I'm no economist but take an investors interest. Is it not generally accepted that printing money is inflationary? and interest rates are increased to control it. As inflation has not significantly increased an interest rate increase has not been necessary.
Also while the opacity of the Japanese money systems make figures open to question, it is fairly clear that Japanese household dept is less than 2/3 rds of the US, while private sector corporate and financial dept is about 450% gdp to dept as opposed to 350% for US.
Since 1990 has Japan not opted for a low interest environment, kept dept level (ish) and tried to grow it's way out? If this didn't work during the boom period of the noughties it's extremely unlikely to work in the near future.
Even if this administration has timed it's reflation policy to catch a new economic upturn (unlikley) corporate dept will cripple industries ability to respond. Personally I think there is a cultural problem as well, stifling industrial dynamism.
SOUTHERNBIAS:
@angryboy 对不起,我很困惑,我不是经济学家但拿着投资者的利息(我就是投资者?)。难道不是普遍承认,印钞票是会导致通货膨胀的吗?而增加和利率来控制它(通货膨胀)。由于通胀并没有显着增加,加息是不必要的。
而日本的货币体系的不透明度,使数字值得商榷,很明显,日本的家庭部门还不到美国的三分之二,但是日本的私营企业及金融部门占到了GDP的450%,而美国才350%。
自1990年以来,日本没有选择低利率环境,保持着部门平衡,并试图寻找出路?(利率)寻找出路?如果在经济繁荣时期这没有起作用,这在近期也是非常不可能成功的。
即使这个政府已在时间上精确计算了通货再膨胀政策,能赶上新的经济的好转(作者:不太可能),企业部门将削弱行业反应的能力。就个人而言,我觉得这是一个文化问题,扼杀产业活力。
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neilwilson
@angryboy - is because these governments have opted to print money rather than borrow it.
That's because fiat money is debt the same as bonds. The only difference is that the former doesn't come with a corporate welfare payment.
The same people that complain about the size of welfare payments to the poor whine like hell when the government decides to cut welfare payments to wealthy bond owners.
Costa Rica Fights Currency Gain as Thailand Talks Baht Weaker
Cosica and Thailand joined a growing chorus of developing nations expressing alarm at the appreciation of their currencies as increased monetary easing in the U.S. and Japan spurs demand for higher-yielding assets.
http:/www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-17/thailand-talks-baht-lower-as-russia-warns-of-currency-war-1-.html
The currency war begins.
愤怒男孩-是因为这些政府选择了印刷纸币而不是借贷。
那是因为法定货币就是债务,就像债券一样。二者唯一的不同就在于前者不需要福利性支出。
有些人抱怨政府支付给穷人的福利规模(较少?),但当政府决定削减富有的债券所有者的福利支付时,这些人同样会拼命地抱怨。
哥斯达黎加力压科朗升值,泰国讨论泰铢贬值
哥斯达黎加和泰国加入了一个日渐壮大的由很多发展中国家组成的“合唱团”,旨在对由于美国不断的货币宽松政策和日本对高收益资产的饥渴需求造成的本国货币升值的压力做出预警。
货币战争开始了。
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ElGwero
And there will be only one winner. Developing nations may bleat all they like, but until they park their aircraft carriers off the respective shores and bully the US and Japan into submission, these policies will continue.
最终只有一个胜利者,发展中国家可以随便说,但是在他们的航母驶出各自的海岸,威逼日本和美国屈服之前,这样的政策将会继续。
I would be very much interested to know what Dr. Martin Feldstein thinks of the Dr. Paul Krugman's article featured in the New York Times on January 13:
' Japan Steps Out '
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/opinion/krugman-japan-steps-out.html?smid=tw-share
The answer is, it’s all good. Market measures of expected inflation, which were negative not long ago — the market was expecting deflation to continue — have now moved well into positive territory. But government borrowing costs have hardly changed at all; given the prospect of moderate inflation, this means that Japan’s fiscal outlook has actually improved sharply. True, the foreign-exchange value of the yen has fallen considerably — but that’s actually very good news, and Japanese exporters are cheering.
In short, Mr. Abe has thumbed his nose at orthodoxy, with excellent results.
我很有兴趣知道如果Martin Feldstein 读了Paul Krugman博士1月13日纽约时报发表的文章后,会作何感想?
Japan Steps Out '
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/opinion/krugman-japan-steps-out.html?smid=tw-share
答案是,一切都很好。在不久之前,采取市场措施来促成预期中的通货膨胀被认为是消极的,因为当时的市场希望通货紧缩可以持续下去,而现在通货膨胀的措施却是很受欢迎的。但是政府借贷费用几乎不变。在温和膨胀的前景下,日本的财政前景将得到极大的改善。是的,日元的外币兑换价值已经大大降低,但那实际上是好消息,日本出口商将会欢呼。
总之,安培先生不按常理出牌,带来了非常好的结果。
网友评论(2122477)2013-01-31 11:58
不明觉厉。。。
网友评论(1358038)2013-01-31 12:21
个人观点:美国靠着自己的强大的武力强行将自己通胀输出国外,保持繁荣。
日本也要开印钞机,因此抱紧美爹的大腿,并且在军事上跟个狗腿子似的,美军到哪他们跟到哪。
但是我觉得如果不是因为有中国的存在美国早就差不多卸磨杀驴了。
日本经济我感觉早晚会玩脱,除非像二战那样将内部压力输出出去。
相比德国就好的多,一直采取稳健经济措施。
----sent from my samsung GT-I9100,Android 2.3.4
网友评论(87712)2013-01-31 12:21
楼主少看这种网站,会降低智商..